From Charyse: An exercise in observational statistics and other basic math

Important matches next week:

1. FC Nürnberg vs Bayern
2. Hannover vs Mainz
3. Leverkusen vs St. Pauli

FC Nürnberg is playing Köln today and if they are lucky enough to break Köln's winning streak they will be dead even in points with Mainz, which could be a catalyst for Mainz to beat Hannover next week. That puts them within shooting distance of us. At the very least we will need a draw to stay in 3rd, but obviously we should WANT a win (though based on the lack of fire from some of Bayern's players it is sometimes best to keep a stoic face, expectations low and know that no lead is safe).

When we last saw Nürnberg, we were at Allianz on November 14th, Matchday 11. We were 9th in the league with 16 points. While statistically less dire, it is even more urgent though here are some stats from that game to get an idea of how we might perform:
Fouls: Bayern - 17 (1 yellow), Nürnberg - 10 (1 yellow)
Corners: Bayern - 3, Nürnberg - 2
Offsides: Bayern 4- Nürnberg 0
Possession: 56.6% Bayern - 43.4% Nürnberg
Total Shots: Bayern 13 - Nürnberg 12
Pass completion rate: 57% Bayern - 43 % Nürnberg
Passing success (in percent): 84% Bayern - 77% Nürnberg

Our lineup that day was:
Butt - Lahm, Van Buyten, Breno, Pranjic - Tymo, Ottl - Müller, Schweinsteiger, Ribery- Gomez.

Based on today's rather lackluster performance against M'gladbach, I'm going to venture a guess that next weekend's lineup is going to be:

Kraft - Lahm, Gustavo Badstuber, Pranjic- Kroos, Schweinsteiger- Robbery and Müller - Gomez.

For whatever reason, Pranjic will still be playing though it would be nice if van Buyten is fit for him to play, with Gustavo at LB and Pranjic far away from touching the ball.

On matchday 12, Leverkusen narrowly beat St. Pauli by 1, we can probably expect the same result. Pauli won't be at home so likelihood of beer projectiles is exponentially lower. However Pauli are now at the bottom 3 and will be scrapping opponents (we can hope) against Leverkusen.

Regarding Hannover-Mainz, their earlier meeting saw a yellow-red for 96. Mainz had a majority of the possession during the match though as we know that means nothing. I am hoping Mainz will do us (and themselves, I guess), a favor by beating Hannover, but at the very least I am going to hope for a draw.

What this all boils down to is what should happen
What should happen:
FC Nürnberg vs Bayern - > Bayern win (though we are not an away team, we can hope)
Hannover vs Mainz -> Mainz win
Leverkusen vs St. Pauli --> Pauli win

This puts Bayern at a safer (though still 3 point) distance away from Hannover, Leverkusen, 2nd place and CL closer within reach.
vs.

The worst that we should expect to happen:
1. FC Nürnberg vs Bayern: draw
2. Hannover vs Mainz: draw
3. Leverkusen vs St. Pauli: Leverkusen win.
We would still be deadly close to Hannover, still in third place though with the better GD and Bayer would be harder to gain on.

There's an even worse alternative but I will refrain from that and hope that this weekend's performance will forcibly shake up our players so that we can get a solid win, add to our GD and bring us closer to ending this nightmare of a season.

For now, I leave you all with the wondrous sounds of Arjen Robben's torhymne: